A Gun-point Marriage in Pakistan
Most Pakistanis, barring close aides and admirers of General Musharraf, power-starved followers of Benazir Bhutto and chronic dreamers of democracy have been foxed by the twists and turns in Pakistan’s political fortune and its internal security concerns. Democracy and military rule in Pakistan has a peculiar malarial syndrome. The nation is periodically gripped by democratic shivers and the guardian angel, the armed forces allow it to wear the quilt of democracy till the shiver subsides and forces out the malarial democratic bugs by peaceful or bloody coups.
Nawaz Sharif was invented by the Inter Services Intelligence and the Armed Forces to install a Punjabi face on the gaddi of Pakistan after ousting the ‘Daughter of the East’ after she proved embarrassing and inconvenient to the military rulers. Nawaz Sharif was blessed by the ISI and Army till he did not cross the Laxman Rekha drawn by his mentors. He talked loudly about peace with India, a slogan considered blasphemous in most quarters in Pakistan. Despite overwhelming popular mandate he was ousted by Musharraf. After the Kargil fiasco Musharraf had no other option. Nawaz was determined to get rid of the ‘rebellious’ mohajir General.
Having ruled Pakistan for nearly eight years with unstinted support of the ISI, the jihadi tanzeems and the factional chiefs of the armed forces, the General had also earned considerable support from the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and its ally Al Qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden. The gung-ho General was not satisfied with the forced withdrawal from Kargil. His ISI provocatively escalated tanzeem sponsored violence in Kashmir and interiors of India and his indulgent winks fortified the Al Qaeda activists to plan the mammoth attacks on the USA. These forces fleeted in and out of Pakistan at will to perpetrate the dastardly acts. These were preceded by the momentous hijacking of the India Airlines flight from Kathmandu by the ISI, Taliban and Al Qaeda backed jihadis.
The General’s hunger for strengthening regional superiority in India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Chechnya and other theatres of Islamic upsurge had almost showered bonanza on Pakistan till the USA was made aware by India that the ISI chief Mohammad Ahmad was responsible for partly funding the 9/11 attacks and decapitation of Daniel Pearls. The 9/11 attacks proved beyond doubt that Musharraf was not a mere ambitious soldier, he was either an active terrorist (proved by Kargil episode) or he aided and abetted the Islamic jihadists to carry out crimes against the peoples in his geopolitical proximity and even in remote USA. The US barrels were turned to Pakistan and the General succumbed and overnight donned the mantle of an obliging ally of trigger happy Bush. The rest is history.
However, history has the tendency of catching up with the errant perpetrators who either father or foster terrorists and jihadists at the cost of the people of the nations such fathers pretend to rule. The triumvirate of Mohammad Ali, Iskandar Mirza and Ayub Khan had fathered the military military-soul of the nation that was curved out of India by Jinnah. General Zia had added the genes of Islamist fundamentalism and the Bhuttos had played along with these forces to brew hate-India elixir. Benazir had given the ‘azadi, azadi’ slogan to the malcontent Kashmiris of India and Musharraf had killed the solitary open advocacy of ‘peace’ with India by Nawaz Sahrif. While Zia, Bhuttos and Nawaz stoked the fire of Kashmir-centric jihad against India Musharraf and his ISI expanded the orbit of jihad to the hinterland of India.
Jihad phobia of Pakistani rulers right from Zia to Musharraf had turned Pakistan as the hottest bacterial colony of the Islamist terrorists which nursed and promoted the concepts of global jihad initiated by the Wahhabi and Salafi sects of the mainstream Arab countries like the Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Oman, Yemen etc. The Deobandi movement in Pakistan and Bangladesh was highly influenced by the neo-Arab thrust spread by the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt and the renewed jihad fever reached the highest pitch with the rebirth of Taliban and Al Qaeda movements.
Musharraf’s post 9/11 turnabout caused by US gun barrels and dollar diplomacy could not rescue Pakistan from the genetic distortion it was made to suffer by its military rulers, unfettered intelligence apparatuses and well entrenched jihadi tanzeems. Musharraf’s Pakistan is facing the nemesis faced by most dictators who used religious fundamentalism, jihad and unfettered violence to strengthen their domestic power bases and to consolidate and expand geopolitical ambitions.
That Musharraf’s Pakistan was not wholeheartedly supporting America’s war against terror in Afghanistan, its strategic invasion of Iraq and threatening postures against Iran and Syria was evident from clandestine links of Pakistani intelligence apparatuses and sections of military hierarchy with the born-again Taliban forces. The Al Qaeda could not shift its strategic headquarters in Pakistan or Pak-Afghan border areas and the combined Taliban and Al Qaeda forces could not have taken over the South and North Waziristan areas without indulgent nods from Musharraf’s agencies.
These forces have now started entrenching themselves in NWFP and even in the heart of the capital city Islamabad. The Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa incidents prove beyond doubt that the political soul of Pakistan has not only been tainted by the military rulers, it has also been poisoned by the religious bigots and jihadist forces.
The Taliban and Al Qaeda forces have been joined by the Uzbek, Chechen (Russian) and Uyghur (west China) rebels. Bangladeshi jihadis have continued to associate with Pakistani jiahdi outfits like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Al Badr etc. In fact, the Pakistani and Bangladeshi jihadi tanzeems have now been injected with the reinforced Jihad serum of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The Al Qaeda has become a unified field of the jihad mission propagated by the Salafist, Wahhabi, Deobandi schools and the movements fathered by the Muslim Brotherhood. This unified field of jihad has been morphed into a new philosophy of spontaneous jihad not only against the Christians and Jews but also against the Hindu nation (?) Bharat and even the Muslim nations considered impure by the jihadist philosophers.
Pakistan is now in the grip of Taliban-Al Qaeda resurgence under the leadership Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and Al qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden. Osama has very recently given a call for war against Musharraf regime and against the person of the Pakistani president. The writ of Pakistan has become tenuous in vast areas of NWFP, Waziristan and certain pockets in the Northern Areas.
A parallel government is already functioning in South Waziristan with effective outreach in areas like Dera Ismail Khan, Kohat-Bannu and the provincially administered tribal area of Swat. Those who want to negotiate with Baitullah Mehsud, the virtual ruler of South and North Waziristan and NWFP would have to face tough Al Qaeda opposition.
Balochistan continues to be on fire. The Baloch nationalist forces have not been defeated with the killing of Akbar Bugti. In recent months the Baloch rebel forces have inflicted serious reverses on the ISI and the army contingents.
Punjab, the soul-province of Pakistan is reeking with Jihadi activities. Curbs imposed on foreign students in madrasas, raid on the Lal Masjid and ineffective banning of the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Toiba have not been able to contain the bacterial growth of Al Qaeda forces inside Pakistan’s heart-fibers. Moreover, existence of over forty five training camps run by the renamed and reformatted jihadi tanzeems in collaboration with the ISI in ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir’ and in Punjab brings out the stark contradiction of the state policies pursued by Musharraf in containing and eradicating the jihadist forces.
In view of these contradictory cross-currents Pakistan is regarded as a nearly ‘failed state’ by strategic watchers in the West and elsewhere. Under these circumstances Musharraf was prodded by the USA to seek reconciliation with the exiled former Prime Minsiter Benazir Bhutto. Nawaz was not the preferred choice of Washington and Islamabad. Nawaz suffers from several handicaps. He is a true Punjabi leader who represents the soul-fiber of Pakistan enjoying over 36% popularity. He often talks about ‘peace’ with India. A mohajir General Musharraf cannot take the risk of inviting a popular Punjabi and offer opportunity to rival Punjabi Generals to polarise around him.
As against Nawaz Sharif, Benazir enjoys 28% percent popular support. She is a Sindhi, a second layer Pakistani. It was beyond Musharraf to get both Bhutto and Nawaz to work together with him as the President, with or without his uniform, which has become almost the leopard’s skin of Pakistani existence. Recent Pakistani surveys indicate that Musharraf enjoys 21% popular support. He therefore, prefers a pragmatic Benazir to join him and put up a joint popular front of 49%; a seemingly legitimate political dispensation which may work smoothly for a while and face the onerous task of recovering the major parts of the country from homegrown jihadists, Taliban and Al Qaeda forces.
The United States has now realised that Musharraf’s dual barreled policies of feigning war against terrorism and fanning the jihadist fire has obliterated the ‘Durand Line’ political boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Al Qaeda is now well entrenched in Pakistan and the ally territory has been fast turning to hostile geopolitical entity that could encompass the whole of Afghanistan, Central Asian countries and even the rebellious Islamist movements in Russia, Europe and Western China. Rest of the South Asia and South East Asia are already reeling under jihadist forays funded by the Arabs and strategically and tactically fortified by the Al Qaeda, Taliban and ISI nexus.
Under these trying circumstances the US is planning a political marriage between Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf. Strategic thinkers in the Pentagon, Langley and White House presume that Ms. Bhutto would able to revive the civil society of Pakistan and Musharraf would be able to manipulate the Armed Forces and the ISI. Their joint forces could negotiate peace with the Taliban and Al Qaeda and restore the political boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan allowing the US and NATO forces to contain the Taliban forces within the limits of Afghanistan’s political geography. In the process the Karzai regime might me able to negotiate peace with a weakened Taliban and extricate the West from its new Vietnam.
Washington has, however, not taken into account the internal jihadist forces that are not loyal to Musharraf. Benazir, Nawaz and Musharraf had used these tanzeems for their missions against India and other targets in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Central Asian countries. These foot soldiers were their trump cards in Indian Kashmir and hinterland targets. These tanzeems are partronised by sections of Salafi, Wahhabi, Deobandi officer’s corps of the army and certain segments of the serving and retired officers and ranks of the ISI. These tanzeems are now intricately connected with the Muslim Brotherhood, jihadist organisations in Sudan, Somalia, Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia and in almost every country in Western Europe. Pakistani jihadi outfits are now considered as inalienable parts of the global jihad espoused by Al Qaeda.
Even if Washington succeeds in arranging a gun-point marriage between Benazir and Musharraf they would have to negotiate with the Taliban and Al Qaeda from a position of weakness. A negotiated arrangement with Al Qaeda and Taliban is bound to leave open the parts of NWFP, Waziristan and Northern Areas specially Kohat-Bannu and Swat-Bajaur agencies to Al Qaeda suzerainty. Pakistan would thus provide permanent havens to the Taliban and Al Qaeda, an achievement that Osama, and Zawahiri could not achieve in Yemen, Egypt, Sudan and Somalia.
Political observers in Pakistan wonder if this proposed gun-point political marriage is likely to restore the democratic process and contain, if not eradicate the jihadi ambience in Pakistan. They are doubtful. Forces loyal to Nawaz Sharif, Sections in the Armed Forces and the ISI are not likely to cooperate with the new US sponsored political initiative. Osma, Zawahiri and Mullah Omar are not considered as weak-kneed jihadis. They have survived the barrages of missiles and ‘global coalition’ against terrorism. They are not only expecting to survive the ‘peace offensive’ likely to be launched by Bhutto-Musharraf combine; they aspire to expand their geopolitical and geostrategic offensives against the USA and its allies.
The proposed marriage itself appear to be little uncertain with Musharraf’s election and shedding of uniform hang in balance. He is sending feelers to the ‘dulhan’ to defer her visit to the gun-point nikah ceremony till his political fate is finally determined either by the Supreme Court or the Supreme Authority of Pakistan-the inner coterie of the Armed Forces.
From India let us send anticipatory congratulations to the ‘dulha’ and ‘dulhan’ and the chief gun totting Qazi-the White House. Allah willing there should be peace in our neighbour’s home and his dream geopolitical expanse.
