The next government in Delhi – National and Strategic security challenges
Mrs. Hilary Clinton, the US Secretary of State in a recent statement expected India to play a vital role in the regional conflicts raging in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Her brief statement was followed up at a Senate hearing on May 13. The US Afghanistan-Pakistan special envoy Richard Holbrooke acknowledged that India has a great role to play in coping with the Al Qaeda and Taliban challenges. Replying to a Senator who wanted to know how New Delhi could help arrest the deteriorating situation in the region, Holbrooke said that till the Indian elections were over and a new government was in place nothing could be said with certainty. Though nothing tangible has been said by Obama, Hilary and Holbrooke so far, the suggestive signals emanating from Washington appear to be ominous. A discerning observer cannot miss subtle changes in US policy towards India and Pakistan. Obama is determined to pour billions in Pakistan in the name of fighting jihadi terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan and spreading in all conceivable directions. He is yet to make up a policy decision if India is acceptable to Washington as a cornerstone of peace, prosperity and democracy in this most troubles region of Asia.
International security observers understand that out of 5 Islamist terrorists 3 have connectivity to Pakistan. They were responsible for terrorist actions in the USA, Britain, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Sweden etc countries. Some of them are linked to the Chechen and Dagestan Islamist rebels and the Uyghur rebels in West China. India’s next door neighbor is the breeding ground of jihad and Islamist terrorists, who want to islamicise the entire region and even other Muslim majority countries. They have virtually become franchisees of al Qaeda and the Taliban.
Strategic habits die hard. Pakistan has been a client state of the USA since 1948. Having used Pakistan as a partner in giving birth to Islamist terrorism in Afghanistan-Pakistan, the USA now wants to use Pakistan again to fight the same Franken-Sheikhs. The U.S. is most likely to succumb to another Pakistani blackmail strategy and ask India to ease military presence and operations in Kashmir as a pre-condition to Pakistan’s withdrawal of troops from the second line of defence for pitting against the Taliban and al Qaeda. The new government in will have to face this demand from the USA and its allies. It would depend on the intrinsic strengths of the new government in Delhi to pressure Washington not to try any funny game and to understand India’s own security concerns. Hopefully, Manmohan Singh led government would give priority to India’s own security concerns than falling prey to U. S. pressure to ease military presence in Kashmir. He had bargained well during the nuke deal; he should now bargain like a Shylock and get the pond of flesh India has been denied so far by the west. It is time India tells Pakistan to vacate the PoK and the Gilgit-Skardu areas and put pressure on China to vacate the Kashmir land gifted to it by Pakistan in flagrant violation of UN mandate conditions and to shut the pages of moth-eaten history of China and stop demanding Arunachal Pradesh and vacate Aksai Chin areas.
Areas conceded by Pakistan, Aksai Chin and adjacent areas (tagged).
Holbrooke’s remarks did not go unchallenged by the lawmakers at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. They were, especially the Democrat Senators, were critical of rushing a massive aid package to Pakistan in the ruse of fighting the Taliban. Senators from both sides showed greater skepticism about its proper use and even expressed that bulk of the aid would end up in some Swiss Banks. The Democrats opposed the move despite efforts by Chairman John Kerry and the minority leader Richard Lugar. However, the Senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez scathingly attacked the government for plowing in $ 12 billion in last ten years. He even refused to sign the bill without any benchmark and accountability both on the part of Washington and Islamabad.
Pakistan and its byproduct, Bangladesh has been the focal points of India’s security concerns. Regime change in Pakistan has worsened the situation and regime change in Bangladesh has improved the security situation in the east rather marginally. India’s Security concerns are not limited to the Northeast, Kashmir and the Maoist movements. Threats of large scale sabotage and subversion and spectacular acts of violence on Indian soil are often associated with the fundamentalist jihadi tanzeems of Pakistan and Bangladesh. Decades of proxy war, infiltration and provocation has also influenced certain fringe groups of Indian Muslims. The activities of the Students Islamic Movement of India, Indian Mujahideens, Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam and Deendar Anjum etc are concrete proof of such subversion and success of Pakistan and its hirelings in Bangladesh in creating jihadi pockets in India. Indian Muslim has so far remained insulated from jihad fervor. How long can they remain immune? In case Pakistan is talibanasied Indian Muslims cannot remain insulated. Jihad is more a contagious disease than any other plague.
Near future attacks on Indian mainland by Pakistan and Bangladeshi jihadi tanjeems like LeT, JeM, HuJI, JMB etc are imminent. India’s homegrown Muslim militancy is intact. Coupled with the problems of burning Manipur, un-extinguished insurgency fires in Nagaland and Assam the emergence of some Muslim militant groups in the northeast and their links with Bangladesh’s jihadi outfits like HuJI, JMB and Allhar Dal etc present far greater challenges to the governing tools.
The Maoist insurgents are increasing their guerrilla warfare in several key areas of the country. The governing tools of the country, political and administrative edifices have miserably failed to address the core issues those push people to the path of Maoism or Naxalism. Mere police actions are not good enough. It is expected that the new government would be able to address the core issues and impress upon the respective state governments to utilize fractions of funds in the affected areas besides siphoning the greater part to political and Baboo pockets.
India as a vibrant but fractured democracy is a difficult country to govern. Plurality of political parties, some based on ideology and most based on regional, parochial and caste considerations have presented a chaotic collage to the canvas of India’s democratic image. Plurality by itself is welcome but de-fabrication of the Indian society in the name of plurality and dissection of the country on vague and undefined lines of “secularism” and “Hindu communalism” has created an explosive situation. India presents the silhouette of a Mother India statue that has developed multiple fractures; created by petty politicians and their pocket borough parties. The Indians in 2009 stand more divided than they were when the country was divided on the lines of religion based nationhood. To a common person it appears that that Indian election is a big money fun and funnier is the system plundering the country and stashing away people’s wealth in Swiss banks. There is no “secularism” and “Hindutwa communalism.” Vote is the window that leads to the golden treasury of India.
With such myriad problems, including millions of nearly or fully starving people, India’s main concern is to bridge the gaps in the social structures, communal fissures, rural-urban divide and building bridges between the urban and rural economies. Bridging the politician-created ‘secular’ communal divide’ is another Herculean task. Over such stupendous tasks India has been burdened with the historical legacy of unfinished agenda of the partition-Kashmir. Besides Kashmir the other security problems that haunt India have been briefly noted above.
From Pakistan’s point of view all outstanding problems between India would evaporate the moment India hands over the remaining Jammu & Kashmir on a platter. That would create an atmosphere of ‘living ever after in love and peace.” Can India and the world expect Pakistan to shut the shutters of all terror and jihad shops in Pakistan owned by the ISI, Jamait-e-Islami, Deoband seminary, Lal Masjid, Binori Mosque, Jammat ud Dawa, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jais-e-Mohammad, al Badr, Hizbul Mujahideen etc outfits? Far from it. The state of Pakistan is owned by these forces in collaboration with the army and its dreaded intelligence wing-the ISI. In case Pakistan and its international guarantor and financier-the USA and its allies can assure India that resolution of the Kashmir issue to the satisfaction of India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir would be followed by Pakistan dismantling all the terror shops than alone India can soften its position.
Otherwise, naturally, historically and legally the entire Kashmir, including the PoK, Gilgit-Skardu and parts of the Northern Areas belonged to the kingdom of Kashmir and after the signing of Instrument of Accession these areas belong to India. The West should understand this position and might not repeat the mistakes it committed in the Balkans, giving rise to extremist Islamism in the heart of Europe, which is likely, explode by 2050. India is not Yugoslavia or Serbia to be kicked around. Such Cinderella dreams of Pakistan and the USA is not only impossible in real politick but also in the context of India’s geopolitical and geostrategic considerations. Once the US forgets this funny idea India can proceed from there to firming up strategic relationship with the USA and if possible, with Pakistan.
President Zardari, in some of his lucid breaks of sanity, admitted that Pakistan required Indian help in combating terrorism in the region. He also was the first Pakistani leader to admit that CIA and the ISI had created the Taliban. He even opened some state secrets of Pakistan-the army had prevented him from sending the ISI chief to Delhi after 26/11 incident. Allah alone knows how long the army would allow a blasphemous President to rule over the holy land by owned by Allah, America and Army, in that order?
The moot questions are: in what way India can help Pakistan? Pakistan’s ill intentions after the 26/11 raid on Mumbai by ISI appointed Lashkar group was manifest when the President, Prime Minister and the Interior Minister spoke in divergent manners and certain Pakistani media were encouraged by them to say that India itself had staged the event; the same was repeated after attack on the Sri Lanka cricket team in Lahore and dastardly attacks in Lahore and Islamabad. Is it possible to inject some serum of goodwill in the existing relationship? Perhaps not, even if Obama and Hilary pressure New Delhi. Pakistan has to reopen the CBM protocol: giving India and Afghanistan trade-transit right, by identifying and punishing the ISI operatives who had piloted attack on Indian embassy at Kabul and by promptly bringing to justice the Lashkar-e-Taiba offenders who had planned attack on Mumbai and finally by stopping ISI and army facilitated infiltration of jihadis in Jammu and Kashmir. Than alone can India respond to Pak and US overtures? India does not have the monopoly of CBM. Enough has been done by relaxing train, bus services and by encouraging trade. The friendship bridge has to be constructed from both ends-not merely from Indian end or from midstream. The US, out of its own geostrategic concerns cannot pressure the new government in Delhi to open all emotive valves to flood Pakistan with love and honey. The US is already reassured that India has not mobilized army on Pakistan border. Zardari has also admitted that India is not the enemy of Pakistan. What else is expected from India? Indian army cannot be rushed to Afghanistan and Pakistan. India’s developmental roles in Afghanistan are well known; though Pakistan alleges that India uses Afghan soil to engineer rebellion in Balochistan and NWFP.
The Indo-US strategic relations have improved over the years. Besides the Nuclear treaty other protocols of mutual interests in jointly fighting the menace of Islamic and other forms of terrorism have already been emphasized.
Indo-US relationship on the military front has increased in manifold directions. Cooperation between the US Pacific Command (USPACOM) forces and Indian Armed Forces has created a strong defense protocol between the US west coast and India’s west coast. India’s presence has been expanded right from the Malacca Straits to the Pacific Rim. India is an equal partner of the US in the greater Indian Ocean Zone. Besides military cooperation India does over $ 4 billion trading in an average month with the USA. India has expressed solidarity with the USA in Afghanistan by participating in developmental activities in the war stricken country. What the US can do now is to pressure Pakistan to give India and Afghanistan transit right as it were discussed in the recent tripartite meeting in Washington between Obama-Zardari and Karzai. The proposed Kerry-Lugar aid bill to Pakistan should be made conditional to Pakistan opening trade corridor to India and Afghanistan. Failure of Washington to achieve this minimum concession would mean that Obama administration has abjectly surrendered to Pakistan by providing huge monetary assistance at the cost of US citizen. Obama should realize that Pakistan army wants to fight a limited war in Swat to save its national capital. Pakistan’s Taliban war is a phony war. Hardly 500 Taliban and nearly 100 soldiers and frontier guards have been killed. The Taliban leadership is intact. They are taking refuge in the mountains and reorganizing. Some of them have taken temporary refuge to Haqqani, Omar and Osama controlled Afghanistan. Some have taken shelter in city hubs. Nearly 800,000 people have been displaced and amazingly the banned Markaz ud Dawa (Lashkar-e-Taiba) etc are doing relief works. Some banning it is!
In the context of India’s strategic security interests it is necessary to understand that India’s main concern is unresolved disputes with China. Beijing objects to Indian President’s visit to Arunachal. Now it has raised objection in the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to block India’s demand for assistance for development works in Arunachal. China is unhappy over India’s development of ICBM capability. To thwart India it is supplying the technology to Pakistan. Beijing is on the other hand mum on North Korea’s ICBM programme. Dalai Lama’s presence in India is a constant point of friction. Several rounds of talks have produced a period of studied silence but the outstanding problems are still straining Indian patience. Would the USA be of any help on this front? No. Washington is helpless when China encourages North Korea to escalate tension in the vulnerable peninsula. China and to some extent Russia uses the Great Leader to checkmate US presence in the Pacific region.
A study sponsored by the US Army War College External Research Associates Program states that Indo-US relationship should be based on securing complementary interests: ensuring stability in the Indian Ocean; establishing democracy across the world; and getting the Indian government to work proactively to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their associated systems. Though India and U.S. have several disagreements on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation, signing of NPT and CTBT they can have meaningful cooperation on several other fronts. The Indian views (as maintained by various political parties) regarding Islamic issues, relationship with Russian federation, China and Central Asian Countries etc vary vastly form the US strategic considerations. India cannot delink from the Muslim countries and support Israel blindly in view of U.S. failure to implement the UN proposals for creation of a Palestinian Homeland. Its blind support to Tel Aviv is not appreciated in India, though India is keen to develop strategic relations with Israel on several fronts. Similarly India’s post-Cold War relationship with the Russian federation and U.S. and EU policies in East European countries are at variance with Indian policies. India cannot opt for exclusive strategic relationship with the USA at the expense of its relationship with Russia and France etc countries.
The US think tanks feel that the two countries do, however, have complementary interests, and it is in American interests to facilitate the development of a strong India that can play a role in ensuring strategic stability in Asia as well as promoting shared values of democracy and secularism. It is necessary to qualify this statement by mentioning that, given the self-imposed limitations on India’s part, any such partnership would only evolve in the long term. In the short term, U.S. interests partially are served by having India work to secure multilateral security initiatives in Asia, particularly in the Indian Ocean littoral, Afghanistan, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. Under Obama the U.S. has adopted a new Afghanistan surge policy and is scheduled to depute another 18 to 20 thousand troops. Hopefully the surge would be able to cope with the grassroots Talibans in Afghanistan and their cohorts in Pakistan. All such wars by the USA ended in disaster. Hopefully Obama would realize soon that he cannot bleed any better a bloodless country called Afghanistan and a deceitful and unreliable Pakistan. Billions poured in Pakistan by the USA have reached off shore and Swiss banks. The people of Pakistan continue to reel under poverty and ignominy. How and in what manner India can aid a blundering USA in Afghanistan and Pakistan? On the other hand, the USA should assist India for combating Pakistani jihad and Chinese mal-intentions. Is Washington ready to do that?
Washington thinks, from an American perspective; the following steps can be taken to enhance the Indo-US relationship and to make India play a more proactive role in furthering U.S. international security interests.
1.The United States could further develop Indian educational capabilities to provide higher technological and managerial education to a growing number of students from West, Southwest, and Central Asia. This is a pipe-dream. Certain streams of Indian education and health care systems are already attracting people form UK, US etc countries.
2.The US thinks that the Indian Navy could be used to enforce a broader maritime security framework in the Indian Ocean. India, for its own interests is developing a stronger Navy in Indian Ocean Zone, especially in the Straits of Malacca and in the Aden Straits where Somali pirates are keeping world naval powers busy. No worthwhile contribution has been made by the USA to strengthen Indian Navy’s infrastructures.
3. The U.S. thinks that India has the capacity to provide significant numbers of troops for peacekeeping, peace enforcement, spread of democracy and nation-building efforts. This is another pipe-dream. Indian forces are already providing peace keeping units in certain African countries and keeping in view the strategic requirement in Kashmir, northern borders and over all concerns about maverick attitude of Pakistani rulers, India can ill afford to send large contingents for peace keeping. India cannot be expected to do U.S’s dirty jobs. Establishing democracy in countries like Myanmar can be a holy task for the USA, but India is not in any position to interfere. The USA should learn from its lessons in Vietnam and Iraq. Democracy cannot be grafted on the political system of any country. It comes from within the people.
4.The United States expects India to play a more proactive role in nonproliferation issues. This is a contentious issue. Indian policy is well known. She is ready to sign the NPT provided all nuclear powers sign the same. There cannot be triple standards in matters of rights of countries to go nuclear for peaceful and military purposes.
5.The US wants to use Indian diplomatic assets to start a substantive dialogue with Iran. India can take up the initiative provided the US adopts a more realistic approach and does not work as proxy of Israel. Iran is an ancient cultural and political friend. This special relationship cannot be used to broker for the USA.
6.The United States expects India to continue to develop its nuclear and conventional military capability and use this capability, as Henry Kissinger has suggested, to “prevent the rise of another dominant power to emerge between Singapore and Aden. And this is compatible with American interests.” What the Americans are not spelling out is that: in the long run India can emerge as a deterrent to China both in the economic and military hardware fronts. This is a reasonable strategic thinking, but the US has to ensure that China does not arm Pakistan to the teeth and liberal U.S. dollar pumping does not bind India down to Pakistan oriented strategic policies. From the present trend visible in Washington it appears that Obama is acting as a one-eyed mythological Greek Cyclops.
The US think tanks aver that reshaping American policies should specifically include:
1.Supporting India’s quest to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The US has not made any positive contribution so far.
2. Reshaping international nonproliferation regimes to permit India, Israel, and Pakistan to become de jure nuclear weapons states. This has been partially achieved during Bush regime.
3. Eventually, recognizing the Line of Control in Kashmir as the international border and, therefore, freezing the territorial status quo in South Asia. This would help reduce India-Pakistan tensions and permit India to play a greater international role. This is again a pipe-dream. India would not accept any third party role in the matter. The US has only one role to play: to pressure Pakistan to cease all hostile activities in Indian Kashmir and stop forays in Indian mainland by the jihadi tanzeems created by the state of Pakistan.
It is expected that the UPA headed coalition would come to power and the new government would keep these salient National and Global strategic considerations in view for delinking Indian policies from the petty political considerations of small-time politicians. The world is not looking at India to be led by Maya, Mulayam and Lalu or Comrade Karat. They are looking with great interest at Manmohan, the best in the present Indian political basket. Advani could have been a right choice. But he played wrong cards. Hopefully, India, under the new leadership would be able to tackle the threats from Pakistan and hoards of Taliban-Qaeda jihadis and Pakistan’s homegrown terror groups. Any new CBM initiative should depend on how Pakistan and USA respond to Indian concerns. To Manmohan starving millions in India should be the immediate concern than the U. S. bogging down in Afghanistan-Pakistan quagmire.
June 2nd, 2009 at 8:01 am
You have put it nicely. But PC, new HM says, so also the chronic bluff master NSA Narayanan that they are going to revamp intelligence. That promise is heard over last 30 years. Why do they bluff the country? It is time to force the State CMs to revamp state intelligence machinery.
June 25th, 2009 at 6:58 am
The U.S. should leave Afghanistan.
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SCANDAL! SCANDAL! SCANDAL!
EMERGENCY! EMERGENCY! EMERGENCY!
George W. Bush continuously criminally stalked Margie Schoedinger to the point that she could not get away from it, and she committed suicide in desperation to escape: he murdered her.
“In her suit, Margie Schoedinger states that George W. Bush committed sexual crimes against her, organized harassment and moral pressure on her, her family members and close relatives and friends. As Schoedinger said, she was strongly recommended to keep her mouth shut. . . . Furthermore, she alleges that George Bush ordered to show pressure on her to the point, when she commits suicide” (blog of drizzten).
“One of those ‘very leasts’ [was] George Bush’s personal complicity in the death (murder to be precise) of my friend Margie Schoedinger in September of 2003. Determining the exact whereabouts and contacts of [then] president-elect George Bush on September 21 thru 22, 2003, should be entirely lacking in difficulty” (Leola McConnell—Nevada Progressive Democratic Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010).
McConnell is correct: Bush applying pressure (continuously criminally stalking Margie Schoedinger) purposefully to force Schoedinger to commit suicide does in fact constitute murder where it culminated in her death.
Bush is a racist hate criminal and hates black people (please feel free to see my “GEORGE W. BUSH IS THE WORST PRESIDENT IN U.S. HISTORY” blog). (Schoedinger was an African-American woman.)
BEWARE: If the president of the United States hates one—for whatever reasons—he can continuously criminally stalk one to the point that one cannot get away from it, and one ultimately commits suicide in desperation to escape. He can murder people in this way.
Bush is getting away with his murder of Schoedinger—with no sheriff, prosecutor, or court willing to uphold the rule of law.
Bush’s method of murdering Schoedinger cannot exist in a vacuum: he must have murdered other people in the same way.
Bush should confess, come out with the names of all of the people whom he murdered in the disgusting way he murdered Schoedinger, undergo execution, and accordingly find himself at the intersection where he would be free.
(There are thousands of copies of the information above on the Internet. It exists very extensively in all major search engines. Please feel free to go to any major search engine, type “George W. Bush continuously criminally stalked Margie Schoedinger to the point that she could not get away from it, and she committed suicide in desperation to escape: he murdered her” or “Bush applying pressure (continuously criminally stalking Margie Schoedinger) purposefully to force Schoedinger to commit suicide does in fact constitute murder where it culminated in her death,” hit “Enter,” and find innumerable results.)
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Andrew Wang
(a.k.a. “THE DISSEMINATING MACHINE”)
B.S., Summa Cum Laude, 1996
Messiah College, Grantham, PA
Lower Merion High School, Ardmore, PA, 1993
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:06 am
I am too simple to appreciate the internatioanl nuances in the article. But two things are of serious consideration. One, the Naxal problem is not a law and order problem to be dealt with by police only. It is equally a problem of development and lack of good govrnance. In fact, the adminsitration does not seem to have penetrated into some of the interior areas, and this gap, is conveniently being filled by non-state groups. So the most importanat thiing in my view is to provide justice and protect the rights of the people there.
Two, the issue of good governance rests on the integrity of the administration that should not permit the bureucrats to squeeze the system for their personal gain. This is a problem of trnsparency that reqires the regime to take issues of corruption seriously and methodically, so that the benefits of governance are available to peole who are not denied their entitlements. Best wishes, Moloy.