The Pune Mayhem and a Sleeping India
Pune bomb blast on February 13, 2010 has revived the ghastly memories of 26/11 Pakistani attack on Mumbai, nearly about 15 months ago in 2008. It is surprising that Indian political leaders and common citizen express shock, surprise and remain agitated for a few weeks and then relapse into the humdrum of daily life. There is no effort to stitch all such incidents into a pattern; which are planned in Pakistan and executed against Indian targets either by the Pakistan based tanzeems or their Indian collaborators. The Pune incident is a part of that unbroken chain of jihad against India.
There are certain considerations which require intensive examination. A couple of my Pakistani media friends have been sending warning messages that jihad war against India from Pakistan based tanzeems should not be seen as a part of proxy war to grab ‘Indian held Kashmir.’ According to them there are deep rooted conspiracies in Pakistan, between the Armed Forces, the ISI and section of political stalwarts and clerics who want to multiply the jihadist tanzeems from Punjab, PoK and even from the tribal areas and use them as auxiliary units of Pakistan Army to fight irregular wars against India and act as vanguard of the regular armed forces when real frontal war is planned against India.
I have no reason to disbelieve my media friends in Pakistan who do not want conventional or nuclear war between India and Pakistan. I have reasons to believe that the STATE OF PAKISTAN is engaged in this strategy and the latest meeting of the jihadis in Muzaffarabad and Markaz ud Dawa rally in Lahore are indicators of that very strategic policy of Pakistan. Starting with deputing the Mehsud tribals to invade Kashmir in 1947 Pakistan has depended on dual policy of direct ISI intervention and intervention through the tanzeems created by it. A third dimension has been added to the strategy after Pakistan succeeded in creating hundreds of Modules and Cells amongst sections of Indian Muslims; whose visible faces are SIMI, Indian Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba Al Alami (International).
This third dimension has been added to allow Pakistan the diplomatic deniability of any of the terror groups in Pakistan. Already there are propaganda in Pakistan and through the electronic media that Indian Muslims are now geared up for another war of liberation and creation of two more Pakistan like nations out of existing India. Hopefully, Indian leaders in Delhi are listening to these underground rumblings.
Indians have either become immune to such dastardly Pakistan sponsored attacks, which has the potential of engulfing the country or they behave like zombies who leave their welfare to fate or at best to the snake-charmer politicians, who sing paean from time to time saying-Sab Thik Hain. After the Pune incident also P. Chidambaram, Union Home Minister asserted that there was no intelligence failure and the state government was earlier alerted about the possibility of jihadi attack on Osho Ashram, German Bakery and the Jewish Chabard establishment. The alert was issued after the FBI informed India about David Headley’s visit to Pune and his surveying of the sensitive establishments. Pune also figured in the jihad speech of Makki, number two in the Markaz ud Dawa establishment.
It should be understood that Alert is a security exercise based on Intelligence Assessment. On the basis of alert the security wings of police arrange for physical security of the threatened vulnerable places and installations. This exercise should not be confused with actionable intelligence generation. The logical sequence of security and intelligence drill is: Intelligence assessment>>Threat determination>>Alert Notice>>Intelligence generation to buttress the intelligence assessment. In case of Pune, even in case of 26/11 incident, intelligence assessment and threat determination stages were observed by the Central IB and the State police were adequately alerted.
The next important course of action is related to intelligence generation about the likely perpetrators of the terror action through Human Intelligence and Electronic Intelligence. In case of Pune, it was known that modules of the Indian Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba were active in Kondhwa, Janwadi etc areas of Pune. There were reports of several hardliner clerics from Azamgarh being employed in local madrasas and some of the Lashkar and IM members had recently migrated from Aurangabad and Pimpri to Pune. In spite of these inputs neither the Central IB nor the State police intelligence succeeded in generating Human Intelligence or Electronic Intelligence to decipher the nexus between the Pune plotters and their handlers in Pakistan and their planned modus operandi of the dastardly terror attack.
In simple language, there was complete intelligence blackout. None of the intelligence agencies had made any effort to penetrate the modules and cells which normally function from within the clustered Muslim areas in and around Pune and nearby towns. Such continuous failure to generate Human Intelligence and absence of sophisticated Electronic Intelligence is unpardonable. Informed Pune sources assert that the intelligence units in the city are in hibernating condition. There is no sophisticated equipment to gather electronic intelligence.
Even basic measures of physical security were not taken in adequate manner to enforce German Bakery to install CC TV and metal detector scanners. Surprisingly the important and vulnerable locality did not even have a police post to patrol the area. Only after the incident a temporary camp has been opened up. Therefore, Chidambaram’s observation that in Pune there was no intelligence failure and the attack was insidious in nature is nothing but a political cover-up of colossal state failure.
In the Pune bombing the jihadis used RDX, ammonium nitrate and petroleum hydrocarbon, possibly with electronic timer device using a mobile phone. The modus operandi and the technology were similar to serial bombings in Rajasthan and Gujarat and some of the train bombing incidents in Mumbai. However, it must be remembered that IED formulae are widely known and several Indian Muslim youths have been trained in Pakistan in the craft of manufacturing explosive devices. There is no brand right by any group. The technology is well known and widely available in the Internet. However, use of ammonium nitrate indicates that the chemical may have been locally procured and the IED was manufactured in one of the cells of the Lashkar or the Indian Mujahideen.
Several speculations are on the air about Riyaz Bhatkal being the ‘mastermind’ behind Pune blast. According to reports Riyaz Bhatkal is in Karachi and he works in tandem with the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the mafia gang of Dawood Ibrahim. His brother Iqbal Bhatkal is reportedly in Dubai. One of the two persons detained by the Maharashtra anti-terrorism squad (ATS) in connection with German Bakery blast case had sheltered the elusive Indian Mujahideen co-founder Riyaz Bhatkal in the neighbouring town of Pimpri between 2005 and 2007. Present indications point fingers at IM, LeT and HuJI. Existence of a huge illegal Bangladeshi concentration in the clustered areas require deeper probe. Though banned in Bangladesh HuJI is active in India.
The other question that has whipped up political debate is about the timing of the explosion. India-Pakistan secretary level talks are likely to be resumed in end February. The BJP has demanded suspension of talks on grounds of possible Pakistani hand behind the terror attack. They also quoted the Prime Minister who had earlier said that there could not be any talk with Pakistan unless all the infrastructures of terror in Pakistan were demolished. The USA also is keen to see resumption of India-Pakistan composite talks and has even said that such talks are central to a permanent solution in Afghanistan. The US, on the other hand, has undermined India’s position by liberally supplying weapons and billions in grants to Pakistan, major parts of which are used in building war infrastructure against India.
India may as well talk to Pakistan but must keep on the table the issue of dismantling terror infrastructure in the neighbouring country. Slogans are being raised in Pakistan that without solving the Kashmir problem any permanent peace can be achieved. There are points of view in India that Kashmir as a whole belongs to India and the Kashmir problem can only be solved if Pakistan vacates illegal occupation. From these diplomatic and strategic rigmaroles it is understood that this time around Indian and Pakistan would talk for the sake of talking. Engaging an adversary is good in diplomacy but not preparing the country to defend against that very enemy’s direct and proxy attack is a pointer to political and strategic bankruptcy. It is feared that the UPA government has run out of ideas and policies to fortify the country from sniper jihadi attacks to be followed by avalanche to jihadi rampage all over the country. Pune is just one of those indicators to starkly remind the country: We never learn lessons.
February 18th, 2010 at 11:18 am
Economic reforms and enlightenment amongst public by making them directed involved in mainstream of the countries economic; by not using laws against the oridinary public, by not using law to scare people and to bring them together, would development nationalist feeling. we are now drifting away from the mainstream nationm towards securing ourselves at various levels. my blog at deathandtaxesarecertain.blogspot.com / vivekbrjain.wordpress.com is an attempt to bring people together.
February 18th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
I agree that India goes to sleep after every dastardly attack. Is there any way to wake up the machinery? The HM should not tell lies to the people that there was no intelligence failure. Where was the intelligence about real intentions of the jihadis? Mere identifying a probable threat does not amount to intelligence production by our hyped agencies.
February 18th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
So, we are misled by the HOme Minister. He claims there was no intelligence failure. But your analysis show there was. How long shall we live with such falsehood and silence from IB who draw fat salary and do nothing?
February 18th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
I live nearby the place of Pune incident. There was no police post in the area though there was warning that this area may be attacked. Hell with Maharashtra government.
February 18th, 2010 at 7:42 pm
Your analysis is correct. We are being misled by the home minister and the chief minister. If they cannot protect let them quit.
February 19th, 2010 at 11:39 am
Your essay is based on facts. All that we are told by police and Delhi are false. There is a fussy IB officer in Pune who hardly gets out of his office and meets people. He poses as a big babu. How do you run intelligence with such fools?
February 19th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
I like this brutally correct account. Police is still blinded.
February 20th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
What about Pakistan assisted terror network of Col. Purohit and Sadhvi Pragya Singh?? We don’t hear anything about them after elimination of Mr. Hemant Karkare. Why??
February 20th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
How funny! The Muslim propagandists have started spreading mouth to mouth propaganda that Pune blast was done by Hindu terrorists. Why do not we silence these pests and push them to Pakistan?
February 20th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
A special thanks to Maloy sir.
I welcome this timing article.Yes it is true that if there is no intelligence failure then howcome the attacks are continuing.Congress appeasement towards muslims is making us feel insecure.
Even last week Mr.Digvijay singh gone to azamgarh,visiting the terrorists houses and questions about kotla ecounter.has he ever gone to the inspector’s house who was killed in same kotla encounter,No. Even no congress supporter questions or accepts the truth.They are busy with money making.The medias questions BJP alot but not to congress.SRK film got highest security but they left aam aadmi ro RDX.All i can say is we have to be more cautious.
I blame BJP also they are not go-getters.Bjp has to strengthen the party.And the only hope is Mr.Nitin gadkari’s new leadership.
Godbless India.
February 20th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
No failure anywhere Mr. Chidambaram. Only tragedy is you cannot stop these incidents. We thought you would be better than the haircare Patil. But you have disheartened us and your IB & RAW have failed yet again.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:21 am
Dear sir,
Another fantastic analysis, lot of people in Maharashtra are disillusioned with congress leadership. It is unfortunate that with over 700 political parties we have no national level secular alternative to congress. what has happened in Pune will soon be repeated in other cities of the country. How many sleeper cells and tanjeems are the indians supposed to peneterate. During 26/11 attacks i do not think any local support was even needed. the recce was carried out by a Pakistani American David headly, a boat that was most probably invovled in oil smuggling was hijacked and then the next day the attack was carried out. Local support is generally required to carryout bomb operations in which case Explosives are made or smuggled using the dawood network. The bombs are assembled and local youths carry out the attack.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:30 am
My point being, if these incidences have to be stopped then we would have to train local police officer to do more than collect haftas for protection. We have to train each every one of them to penetrate such cells which are generally in muslim dominated areas. Such areas are alsio very touchy when it comes down to religion, one false step and the entire country will be flooded with news on human rights of Muslims being abused. Besides billions of dollars will have to be spent to increase the police staff and giving them the means to be vigilant 24/7
I think it would be cheaper if New Delhi decided to support various shia elements in Pakistan who are constantly being targeted. Pakistan in its effort to defeat India has forgotten to gaurd its rear. It would be much cheaper and at the same time ISI would get a taste of its own medicine.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:32 am
One last thing sir, I have observed that every time there are India Pakistan peace talks a Bomb explodes in India. I guess it is Pakistan’s way of saying we can hit u any time we want. That way they have a edge during the negotiations. Sir please respond
February 21st, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Your comments about int failure is 100% correct. I know a few chaps in police Int in Pune. They are lousies. Central IB boss poses as the biggest officer in town. He does not respond to calls. Things should improve for the better.
February 21st, 2010 at 7:46 pm
Not related to the Mumbai hero. But as a resident of Pune we now live under the shadow of death.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Virtually Allah saves us, not the governing system. My sister escaped with minor injuries at Pune. She was lucky other 15 were not. Catch the culprits do not blame all Muslims.
February 23rd, 2010 at 1:04 pm
The agencies may or may not have failed. It is the policy which has failed. A policy of merely appealing to the international community every time there is a terror attack in India and calling upon the culprit to take action against its own machinery is no policy. What is needed is strong arm tactics of reprisals, of covert actions and targetted killings. Or be prepared to persih. Diplomacy, international opinion and human rights be damned.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:07 am
You blind bloody Indian. As long as Kashmir problem is not solved we are not going to relent. Entire Hindustan was ours and it shall be ours again. Issha Allah, Cresent flag will be on the dome of the President’s palace.
March 3rd, 2010 at 3:22 pm
What an ass****…you didnt even post my previous comment cos i spoke the truth.Just shows how hollow your acritical analyis are and the not to mention the intellectual level of those who read u blindly.Persish in your rage for victory is for the believers.
March 6th, 2010 at 11:32 am
This bloddy terrorist Arbaz Khan is going to get drone.
First try to rule your country. Your bed partner USA is stricking you not having the guts to face that.You peoples are roaming like beggers.
Nowadays beggars are started using computers.So saddddddd……
March 15th, 2010 at 8:49 am
IN Bareilly Muslims are killing Hindus under Maya’s police protection. NO TV or newspaper highlight this. Are we at te mercy of Musalmans? Why do not write about this. Come to Bareilly and study the grave situation.