Western Disturbances And Subcontinental Tsunami

Posted on | August 8, 2008 | 31 Comments

The fidayeen attack on Indian Embassy at Kabul, Afghanistan, has been described by various analysts as a turning point in India’s fight against Jihad International, in collaboration with the US headed global coalition. The National Security Advisor also commented that India had incontrovertible proof of involvement of the Inter Services Intelligence’s (Pak) involvement in the attack. Some blamed the Taliban, Mullah Omar group and the others Mullah Jalauddin Haqqani group for the devastating attack. Some doubting toms speculated that the attackers could belong to Baitullah Mehsud of Neo-Taliban group working in tandem with al Qaeda and other Neo-Taliban groups.

Underlying these media, intelligence and diplomatic speculations the polar constant remains unchanged: for India there is no turning point, as far as National Security is concerned. Attack on the Parliament on 11/12 did not initiate a turning point in the history of launching WAR against the Jihadists, as the 9/11 attack by al Qaeda on the US or later attacks on British targets by the al Qaeda franchisees did. Nations in the West devised new armours to fight the new menace. In simple words India Inc. is neither politically motivated to reorient the systemic tools to combat the Jihadi threat nor the agencies are prepared to hone up their tradecraft tools to meet the challenge. India is at the mercy of the Jihadis.

Several jihadi attacks failed to move the Indian State as it was not moved by continuous attacks on the State by the Marxist Leninist revolutionaries. Security breeches evoke patent speeches from the political masters. The only thing that churn the nation when the politicians get embroiled in casteism, minorityism, vote bank shenanigans and threat to their power bases, in cahoots with the bureaucrats, a class better suited for the bygone colonial days. On rare occasions some intelligence officials, military brass and rare species of analysts get alarmed over the renewed Western Disturbances that threaten Indian security, and their approaches are normally consigned to the political cold storage of expediency.

However, in reality, a huge Western Disturbance, you can say a severe tectonic disturbance, is taking place at India’s western flank and other flanks of our country over which discerning security, intelligence and military bodies cannot sleep in political Nirvana. The tsunami waves of Jihadist advances have been released by the disturbances in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is a matter of time these waves hit India devastatingly, with unthinkable consequences.

The main tectonic plates that are grinding the geopolitical and geostrategic strata in Afghanistan and Pakistan are the 1) Taliban Classic, 2) Neo-Taliban, 3) al Qaeda, 4) Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Indian, Diaspora, 5) Franchised Jihadi forces belonging to Africa, South East Asia and European countries, 5) The Inter Services Intelligence of Pakistan, and 6) The Directorate General of Forces Intelligence of Bangladesh.

The collateral forces that are involved directly are the US and NATO allies. India’s lackadaisical security approaches to the emerging problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan and Bangladesh are mostly viewed through the coloured filters of “secularism”, “minorityism” and the artificial firewall against Right Reactionary Hindu Nationalist forces. In India, even nuclear issue is conditioned by the political paint of “minorityism.”

India is yet to recognize that after 9/11 and 11/12 the jihad forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and countries where Old McDonald al Qaeda has opened up new franchisees-in Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and obviously in UK, USA and other western countries have generated new security concerns. The Jihad International cannot be dissected in isolation as the total anatomy is umbilically and ideologically one and single. For the limited purpose of our discussion we could keep confined to the immediate West and subcontinental references.

Afghanistan imbroglio has metastasized into a cancer. US decision to defeat the Cold War enemy USSR in Afghanistan with Arab and Pakistani help had encouraged the historical Islamist forces like the Wahhabis, Deobandis, Al Azharis, Ikwan-ul-Muslimin, Salafis and new Islamist order invoked by Jullandhari General Zia-ul-Haq to reinvent the Neo-Islamist philosophy of the 2ist century. The nuclear fission of Jihad against jahil and kafir communists spilled over the killing fields of Afghanistan.

No requiem is required for the demised Soviet Union, but RIP rhymes are genuinely required for the US and its allies; Pakistan included. By Islamicising Pakistan and legitimising jihad Zia-ul-Haq had done the greatest disservice to Pakistan and subcontinental Muslims than any other fanatic who might have dreamt like Shah Waliullah to restore the glory of Islam even by inviting Ahmad Shah Abdali or Jinnah invoking “Direct Action.” Zia’s invitation to the US and the Saudis was no less than a suicidal action than Waliullah’s inviting the Afghan Warlord and Jinnah’s forcing an impractical partition. The supposed virtuous people committed the most heinous crime-all in the name of religion.

The genie of jihad in Afghanistan was geopolitically and geostrategically exploited by all the involved parties, financiers, arms suppliers and jihad breeders. The people of Afghanistan were exposed to perpetual condemnation. The genie of Jihad started by the ideological concepts of the Ikhwan-ul-Muslimin (Egypt), Wahhabism (Saudi Arabia) and Salafism (neo-puritans-Jawahiri brand), Deobandism and the al Qaeda have now morphed into an ideology of Jihad International against the West and its allies, and by extension the territory of Hindoostan over which Islam ruled for nearly thousand years. While the genie of jihad have been transformed into an ideology and are affecting various parts of the world, in South Asian subcontinent it has taken the form of a formidable twister that can transform geopolitical maps of our three countries once again. Many subcontinental Islamicists have resumed thinking in terms of recapturing the TAJ-E-HIND, which they say, rightfully belonged to them and the British and Hindus conspired to snatch away the crown of Hindoostan. Understanding these blatant psychological changes is important in interpreting the present Jihadi campaign.

To understand this new wave of Jihadism we may briefly examine the main players:

The Classical Taliban was not born out of pious Naqshbandi (originated at Bokhara) Sufi piety. Pakistan had linked up the Herati and Kandahari Naqshbandis with the Qadiriya Sufis of Paktia, Paktika etc eastern provinces and formed a nebulous coalition under the Deobandi guidance and Jammat-ul-Ulema Islam’s supervision.

Most of Mullah Omar’s bands were trained in Pakistan based Deobandi and JUI madrasas and were coalesced as a fighting force by the ISI during the regime of Benazir Bhutto. They were initially used as a group armed by the ISI and the CIA to help opening up Kandahar-Heart route to Turkmenistan and other countries for trading and for laying a gas/oil pipeline. Later, the border madrasas were temporarily closed down and over 15, 000 talibs were sent to strengthen the hands of Mullah Omar. Thereafter, regular Pakistan Army personnel and ISI recruited Tanzeem fighters also joined the Taliban for capturing political power and establishing a strategic depth for Pakistan and for opening up trade routes.

After capture of Kabul Mullah Omar took out the gown of Hazrat Mohammad in April 1996, put it on and in front of 1200 Pashtun mullahs and assumed the title of Amir-ul-Mu’minin (protector of the faithful). The same year Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Jawahiri and their entourage flew into Afghanistan after being evicted from Sudan. The relationship waxed and waned and a tricky balance was maintained by the ISI, though Saudi Arabia and USA were keen to get Osama extradited.

Prince Turki, chief of Saudi intelligence had visited Kandahar to persuade Omar with a fat purse, but the prince was rebuffed. The US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11 had destroyed the intangible edifice of the Classical Taliban. Mullah Omar and his close associates survived by using guile and plenty of help from the ISI, which always maintained a steady link with the one eyed fanatic.

The Taliban regime was demolished but installation of Karzai and restoration of some semblance of government and governance has also been intangible. The physical corpus of the Classical Taliban was created by the ISI, CIA and fanatics like Maulana Fazl-ur- Rahman (JUI). But the effervescent ideology of purist Islamic rule advocated by the old Naqshbandis, Qadiriyas and Chestiyas (Chisti school of Sufism) and fortified by Wahhabism, Ikhwan-ul-Muslimin, Salafism and al Qaeda brand International jihad has given rebirth to the New Taliban movement. New Taliban is the first umbrella jihadi organizations in Pakistan, which have the potential of spreading all over Pakistan. Already the New Taliban forces have started operating in Punjab and sooner than later they are likely to obliterate the Indo-Pak border.

Mullah Omar and few of his close associates are still exercising suzerainty over half of Afghanistan. They have seeped into Kabul and have started shaping minds and events. The new forces inside and outside Afghanistan have set goals to establish a new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Pakistan, either as two separate geopolitical entities or as a federation of two different Emirates bonded by the ideology of purist Islam.

What is this Neo-Talibanism? There is nothing new in it. Way back in 1998 groups of mullahs and madrasa students were enforcing purdah, banning video parlours, closing down barber shops and enforcing strict Islamic laws in NWFP areas. In 1998 Mullah Omar obliged the Pakistan unit of Tehrik-e-Teluba (Taliban movement) in Orakzai Agency of Pakistan. Thousands of people were executed in Taliban style to enforce pure Islam.

The Orakzais were imitated by other tribes and in Quetta the mullahs also created Tehrik-e-Teluba and tried to enforce strict Islamic way of life. The so called Neo-Talibanism is nothing but reformation of the Islamist ideological forces amongst the tribal population of Pakistan, and Afghan tribes other than Pashtun. These forces are now spreading into other areas of Pakistan.

Between 1998 and 2008 Pakistan itself has undergone vast changes. Pashtuns living in Punjab and parts of Sind, besides the NWFP, were inspired by the spirit of Jihad advocated by the Taliban and al Qaeda. They were drawn more towards the resurgent Islamic forces by the intervention of the US and NATO in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and threatened intervention in Syria and Iran.

The festering sore in Palestine and growing gangrene in Lebanon and blatant intervention in oil producing African countries have convinced the Muslims that the West and its allies are trying to destroy the Islamic countries for all time to come. The Jihad fever, Muslim scholars feel, is not likely to subside without redrawal of political maps of the Islamic countries through guerrilla warfare, and recognition by the WEST that whenever they intervened in any part of the world, for establishing territorial, economic and hegemonistic colonies they left those countries in total shambles. Britain escaped from India after creating deep scars and the USA is in the process of escaping from Iraq and Afghanistan after creating enormous human sufferings.

This psychological trauma, prolonged war situation and failure of the WEST to score battlefield victories have inspired numbers of Afghan and Pakistani groups to embrace the Taliban, al Qaeda and Jihadi philosophy and way of life as deemed weapons of deliverance.

Mankind has the deep rooted tendency of escaping to the supernatural when it finds the natural happenings beyond his control. Jihadi aggression, as prescribed in the Quran, is a simplistic escape route to justify different kinds of war against odds. Even Babur, after being threatened with defeat at Panipat, had broken his wine glass, destroyed his cellar and told his soldiers that the war against Hindoostan was a JIHAD and they would sacrifice everything to achieve that Allah appointed goal.

The rise of new bands of Talibans, euphemistically called Neo-Talibans, is a mix of old Afghan mujahideen stalwarts like Haqqani and new incarnations like Baitullah Mehsud etc. Haqqani had set up strings of madrasas in North Waziristan. Recently one such madrasa was destroyed by Pakistan army.

The Haqqani led Taliban group has had waxing and waning of relationship with the ISI, CIA and Omar group. Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani was part of the preeminent Afghan militants exiled to Pakistan during Daud’s presidency. During the Jihad years, Haqqani fought the soviets in Paktia and Paktika provinces as a powerful mujahideen commander under banner of Maulvi Yunes Khales’ Hezb-i-Islami. He was respected in Arab countries and received Saudi intelligence backing beside CIA and ISI support. He had emerged as a respected commander. For a while he was a member of the Mujahideen government.

He had sided with the Taliban Force and was appointed Minister of tribal affairs. However his relationship with Omar soured and he spent his time in Pakistan and Gulf countries. However, after renewed US attack and re-emergence of insurgency the Haqqani led Taliban emerged as a group challenging Omar’s leadership. Omar has no Pan-Afghan Vision. Haqaani claims to have better political vision for entire Afghanistan. He refuses to recognize Omar as self-appointed Amir-ul-Mu’minin. Haqqani was inspired by Naqshbandi Islam and he never cherished the Ikhwal-ul-Muslimin and Salafi brand of Islam.

In an open letter to Taliban fighters and other Afghan insurgents written in the pad of “Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan.” Haqqani’s message described Mullah Omar as an illiterate person and alleged him for misleading the Afghan people. Haqqani suggested that errors by the Taliban leadership had caused the loss of many prominent commanders, including Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Osmani, Mullah Dadullah, Mullah Abdul Manan and Mullah Saifullah Mansoor.

The veteran jihadi commander believes that the Taliban’s shura (consultative council) in Quetta was influenced by al Qaeda and the ISI. He bitterly criticized Mullah Azizullah Eshaqzai, Mullah Abdul Shakoor and Mullah Jan Muhammad Baloch, all relatives of Omar for issuing orders that have caused losses to Taliban forces. He also pleaded for better relationship with other countries (probably including India).

Jalaluddin Haqqani has strong influence in eastern Afghanistan and the North Waziristan tribal agency of Pakistan, which puts him in a far stronger position than any other leader of the Taliban except Mullah Omar. His “Haqqani Network” has proved highly effective in striking government and Coalition targets, leading him to be regarded in some quarters as already a greater threat than Mullah Omar. A confrontation between Mullah Omar and Jalaluddin Haqqani over the leadership of the neo-Taliban, however, may provide the opportunity for a Coalition/Kabul government success against the insurgents, who continue to control at least 50 percent of Afghanistan.

Little known facts about this New-Taliban Force are interesting. After 2002 Haqqani was invited to Islamabad, where the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with which he had close ties, offered him the presidency of Afghanistan, provided he broke all ties with Mullah Omar and carved out a moderate Taliban faction. Haqqani refused the offer and went back to the mountains between Khost and Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal area and began his campaign of pitched battles against US-led forces. He became a prime US target, with a number of attacks aimed specifically at eliminating him.

Although Haqqani still commands great respect all over Afghanistan and especially among the tribal elders of Khost, Paktia, Paktika and Gardez, he still does not belong to the Taliban core – Mullah Omar’s kitchen cabinet.

Haqqani led Taliban launched a major recruitment drive in 2007. This coincided with the government of Pakistan clamping down on jihad activities in Indian-administered Kashmir. This played right into the Taliban’s hands as many former members of Pakistani Jihadi organizations, including from the banned Laskhar-i-Toiba and the Jaish-i-Mohamed, gathered in North and South Waziristan, where the Taliban established a virtual Islamic state along the lines of the former uncompromising fundamentalist religious Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

While some Pakistani Jihadis joined hands with Haqqani the majority pledged their allegiance to Mullah Omar. About 27,000 fighters are reported to have gathered in North Waziristan alone. More than 13,000 are believed to be in South Waziristan. The Taliban leadership there had formed about 100 suicide squads by February 2008, assembled under the motto to fight until the last man and the last bullet. There objective is said to the establishment of the United Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Besides the third major Pakistani Taliban group styled as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) headed by Baitullah Mehsud some minor Pashtun groups headed by Mohammad Mokhtar Mojahid, Mufti Latifullah Hakimi and Mohammad Yusof often function independently in Paktika region. Some suggestions have been made that these smaller groups are armed and assisted by the ISI for weakening the Omar group.
The TTP was formed as an umbrella group to enable the numerous pro-Taliban groups operating in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan. In recent months the most significant threat has been posed by the forces under the command of Baitullah Mehsud in the South Waziristan agency of FATA, and the Tehrik-e-Nefaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) forces under the command of Maulana Fazlullah in the Swat district of NWFP.

In both South Waziristan and Swat, militants have demonstrated an ability to progress from hit-and-run tactics to full-scale assaults on military and police positions with the intention of permanently holding territory. In Swat, Maulana Fazlullah’s (Maulana FM) forces seized control of a number of towns and administrative districts between October and December 2007.

In South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud’s forces conducted successful assaults on key forts in Ladha, Sararogha and Seplatoi between 10 and 17 January 2008. Although the Pakistani security forces have generally been successful in rolling back such gains, even the temporary loss of control over towns or military facilities represents a significant blow to the legitimacy and credibility of the government, and a corresponding boost to the militants. This situation has been exacerbated by the dual failure in government’s counter-insurgency strategy. The desire to avoid antagonising local tribal jirgas has seen the government reluctance to deploy sufficient forces to prevent areas of FATA and NWFP from slipping into the hands of the Neo-Talibans.

The targets of TTP broadly aim at assassinating those tribal elders and other representatives of traditional power structures who opposed their rise. Those tribal leaders perceived to be co-operating with the government have been the particular focus of attacks. Estimates suggest around 200 tribal leaders have been killed.

TTP forces, together with their Uzbek, Arab, Uyghur and Tajik etc allies, have launched a number of attacks against pro-Taliban militant leaders such as Maulvi Nazir, who have resisted incorporation within the TTP, and spoken out against the increasingly influential role played in FATA by Uzbek militants associated with Tohir Yuldashev. One such attack occurred on 7 January 2008, when nine tribesmen affiliated with Maulvi Nazir were killed in South Waziristan.

A common target of all pro-Taliban groups in the region, whether affiliated with the TTP or not, is the targeting of individuals and institutions perceived by the militants as being ‘un-Islamic’. This accounts for the spate of attacks across the region on barber shops, music and video shops, and girls’ schools. A large proportion of attacks are directed against Pakistani security forces deployed in FATA and those areas of the NWFP being contested by the militants. While initially limiting themselves to ambushes and abductions, more recently TTP forces have conducted a series of successful assaults on forts serving as key outposts for the security forces in FATA.

A new Taliban group named after Tora Bora has been set up by the son of late Afghan Mujahideen leader Maulvi Yunis Khalis to organise resistance to US-led foreign forces primarily in eastern Afghanistan. Qari Sajjad, a spokesman for the new Taliban group, told that their fighters were active in the eastern Nangarhar province and other parts of Afghanistan. He explained that the group was named Tora Bora because it had old bases in the Tora Bora mountain range dating from the days of the Afghan “Jihad.”

According to western and ISI estimates the Mohmand Agency has come under the complete control of Umar Khalid after he eliminated another jihadi organisation operating in the area.

Khalid, a Safi tribesman who is commanding the Taliban in a very strategic tribal district, took greater control of Mohmand following a bloody campaign against the Shah Sahib militant group, whose chief and deputy chief were among eight killed recently. Umar Khalid is the strongest and most influential Taliban leader after Baitullah Mehsud and Maulvi Faqir.

People from the banned militant organisation Lashkar-e-Toiba had originally led the group of Khalid. Any group not showing allegiance to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is not tolerated in the Mohmand Agency. According to his close associates, Umar Khalid is a born jihadi, who has glorified the fight against infidels through his poetry. His poetry is all about jihad; Khalid worked for pro-jihad publications Zarb-e-Momin and the daily Islam in the 1990s before he joined the freedom struggle of the Kashmiri people against Indian rule in Kashmir. His affiliation with the two publications also earned him membership of the Ghalanai Press Club, in Mohmand area.

Umar Khalid, (40), was the Harkatul Mujahideen chief in the Mohmand Agency before becoming a Taliban commander. According to his associates, his journey towards extremism began with a journey to Azad Jammu and Kashmir. He was in Muzaffarabad on personal business when Azad Jammu and Kashmir jihadis contacted him. Since then Khalid’s sole concern has been jihad.

The Khalid-led group usually engages American forces in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar. He closely co-ordinates with Maulvi Faqir, the Taliban chief of the neighbouring Bajaur tribal region. However, Khalid does not host foreign militants in Mohmand like Faqir does. Khalid claims that some 26,000 trained militants operate under his command. He is known to be a close associate of one Brig. Rashid Torikhel of the ISI’s Afghan Division. A report (20.7.08) emanating from Pakistani sources indicated that there was a serious clash between Khalid and Mehsud gangs in Mohmand area; Khlid was taken prisoner. Mehsud also described Khalid as a pro-government Taliban. These reports are unconfirmed.

As mentioned earlier over 3000 Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Jhnagvi, Lashkar-e-Islam and Lashkar-e.Mohammad etc Jiahdi groups have signed up with Baitullah and Maulana Fazlullah groups of Pakistani Talibans. This does not mean closer of the Jihadist shops by the Jamait-e-Islami, Markaz-ud-Dawa-ud-Islam, Binori Mosque, Lal Masjid, and the ISI managed training facilities which train mujahideens to carry out Jihadist assignments in India, Bangladesh and any other theatre chosen by the anti-Kemalist (Musharraf) military establishment.

If Daniel Marston, author of Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare is to be believed the hardcore Pushtun elements have been sidetracked by other elements mentioned above and elements which have been propped up by the ISI. Pakistan played an important role in the insurgency campaign, despite its governmental stance of support for US and NATO forces. Marston, who spent three years in Pakistan and Afghanistan, says the reality of the Pashtun belt is its long history of resistance to government control and its close relationships with Pashtun tribes on the Afghan side of the border. The ISI and several Army commanders are in direct touch with the Pakistani and Afghan Talibans and are engaged in encouraging the combined Taliban and al Qaeda forces to strengthen their stranglehold inside Afghanistan. In the process, they are indirectly creating a long belt in FATA and NWFP areas that are controlled by the armed Jihadis.

Some Pakistani journalists are of the opinion that Pakistan would, under no circumstances allow an Afghanistan under geopolitical control of the West and India. Once their Mission Afghanistan is completed and the NATO is forced to withdraw the ISI and Pak Army would divert people like Umar Khalid and Baitullah Mehsud to Indian J&K and other parts of India. The present strategy of causing few explosions inside India is aimed at strengthening the Mass Control on the Indian Muslims and bringing them under the orbit of Jihad International. India cannot stop periodic serial explosions in places like Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Bangalore and Hyderabad. This weapon is being used to establish and strengthen the Jihadi Hubs in India. The self-styled Indian Mujahideen is like a new umbrella name assigned by the ISI for several jihadi groups active in India.

These democracy loving media persons of Pakistan aver that “Kemalist” Musharraf’s days are numbered, as he failed to restrain the ISI and Jihadi army officers. In fact, the USA prefers leaders like blundering Saddam than a Kemal Pasha. It is time to watch if General Kiyani fits in the scheme of new policy shift of the USA.

Mark Mazzettti, writing in New York Times (July 20, 2008) poignantly commented, “…most C.I.A. veterans agree that no relationship between the spy agency and a foreign intelligence service is quite as byzantine, or as maddening, as that between the C.I.A. and Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or I.S.I. It is like a bad marriage in which both spouses have long stopped trusting each other, but would never think of breaking up because they have become so mutually dependent. Without the I.S.I.’s help, American spies in Pakistan would be incapable of carrying out their primary mission in the country: hunting Islamic militants, including top members of Al Qaeda. Without the millions of covert American dollars sent annually to Pakistan, the I.S.I. would have trouble competing with the spy service of its archrival, India.”

He further comments that, “One senior C.I.A. official, recently retired, said that of all the foreign spymasters the C.I.A. had dealt with, General Kayani was the most formidable and may have earned the most respect at C.I.A. headquarters in Langley, Va. The soft-spoken general, he said, is a master manipulator.”

The million dollar question is: Is the USA contemplating to foist Kiyani (pragmatic) after dumping “Kemalist” Musharraf and the elected government? Even Jesus does not know what cooks in the Langley and the NSA.

In addition to the Taliban groups the al Qaeda is well entrenched on Pakistan side of the Pak-Afghan border along Nuristan, Nangarhar, Parachinar and Konar mountain regions. Though the NATO and Pakistan have not given out any concrete figures about the active fighting force under Jawahiri and Osama, Pakistani journalists estimate that they have about 7000 Arab, Uzbek, Pakistani and Afghan fighters with them. They often coordinate with the Pakistani and Afghani Taliban forces for striking against US targets and assigned Pakistani targets. Recent reports indicate that the ISI is engaged in a dialogue with the al Qaeda for shifting back to Omar controlled Afghanistan. However, it is also true that al Qaeda and Mehsud Taliban have established camps on the borders of POK and the Waziri tract. India has to be watchful of this new shift.

Besides Pakistani operations the NATO has also massed troops in Paktia, Paktaki and Nurestan areas. Accidental NATO firing on Pakistan territory has become a regular feature. However, Pakistan is unable either to effectively fight the Taliban and al Qaeda forces in its territory or face off the US, NATO and Afghan troops operating on its borders.

According Nazmuddian A Shaikh, former Foreign Secretary, Baitullah Mehsud wants merger of Afghan and Pakistan Pashtun areas and creation of a new homeland; an old demand of the Pashtun people. The Afghan Taliban is now money-flush having annual income from $ 35-45 million generated from Opium Cess, leakage from US cash dole to Karzai government, taxes imposed on provincial officials and others. Surprisingly money comes from the ISI as well, who want Omar and Haqqani etc groups to keep US/NATO busy in Afghanistan and distract them from happenings inside the country and its interference in two other countries of South Asia.

The overall picture inside Afghan War Zone is chaotic. This may be better illustrated by the cut-section of the map below in limited context. By no means, this represents the real war scene. However, nearly half of Afghanistan is now being controlled by the Taliban forces and the NATO forces along with whatever military props the Karzai government has occupy scattered penny pockets. They mostly depend on aerial fire power.

Afghan Taliban’s resurgent advances have started giving it back the illusory reputation that the Amir-ul-Mu’minin is back to protect Islam against the forces of jahil USA. In fact, in rural Afghanistan the Taliban is regarded as the protector and the USA as a foreign invader. Ironically the USSR has been replaced by another un-Islamic force represented by the West.

Besides the Taliban and al Qaeda there are other forces involved in the Afghan conundrum: 1) The regrouped Northern Forces plus the firm believers in democracy in which Pashtun, Hazara, Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen tribes are well represented. 2) The US and allies, 3) Pakistan and 4) Geopolitically interested countries like India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran etc.

India has a vital stake in ensuring a stable democratic Pakistan under Western tutelage. Pakistan desperately wants India out of the Afghan orbit as its presence strengthens the bondages between pro-democratic Afghan forces, India-minded Pashtun population, the Baloch people and the people of Sind who seek better political status.

Pakistan’s main ally, China also wants India out of Afghanistan as its vast land and sea-route interests in Pakistan are essential for its increasing presence in the Persian Gulf area.

These complicated geostrategic issues endow on India the onerous responsibility of astutely combining development works in Afghanistan, military collaboration with the Afghan government and other clandestine operations to match Pakistan’s Proxy-War against India. In this scenario one or two major attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan should be taken on the strides and the political and military planers are required to study the ultimate requirement of Invisible Military Collaboration with the Afghan forces.

THE AFGHAN WAR ZONE

Figure 1 OMAR Areas

Taking into consideration the developments inside Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Frontier Areas the global observers have commented that sooner than later the Jihadi forces inside Pakistan would transcend the narrow objective of fighting jihad in Kashmir and spreading the poison of Jihad inside Indian heartland.

The history of Jihadist activities outside Kashmir is a clear pointer that the philosophy of Jihad International is going to affect India and Bangladesh seriously. Before we examine these issues I would request the readers to refer to a few dissertations published earlier in my web site: Can India Inc Fight Jihad International, Jihadi Modules and Cells and Footprints of Jihad etc.

However, the readers may like to have a glimpse of the War Zone in Pakistan before I try to explain the complicated Jihad conundrum haunting Pakistan. The two cut section-plates portray only parts of the War Zone reality:

PAKISTAN WAR ZONE I

This cut-section does not show recent massing of NATO forces in FATA area (Kohat-Bannu Road) and Nanghar-Warsak axis. The upper area between Mardan-Mirwas and Saidu Sharif and Muzaffarabad may look vacant. But there are reports that al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban forces are camped as near to India border at Miranshah (not marked). From that tract Indian Kashmir is two day’s march for veteran tribal warriors. Some Pakistani sources indicated that during 2007 February peace talks with Kakakhel, Turikhel and other tribes the Pakistan authorities had agreed to shift some elements of the al Qaeda and Baitullah Taliban to Miranshah area. There is no information that these jihadi settlements have been removed by Pakistan Army.

The War-Zone picture would not be completed without examining another cut-section of Pakistan:

PAKISTAN WAR ZONE-II

Readers may notice several inlay pins identifying different places of the war-zone. For lack of space these could not be superimposed in the present cut-section.

The situation inside is very confusing and no one really knows who wield the magic wand. But nothing in Pakistan gets recognisable contour without the ISI and the Army. The Army appears to be divided on the issue of Taliban and al Qaeda Jihad against US led forces. President Pervez Musharraf has very little control on the Army.

The Jihadi factions led by the generals like Director General ISPR Major General Rashid Querishi, and the beard-sporting fundamentalist Generals like Mohammaed Usmani and Mohammed Aziz and at least three other Pakistani generals have been publicly accused of having links with the al Qaeda. This is just the tip of the iceberg. More disturbing is the fact that the father of Pakistan’s Atom Bomb was sent into forced retirement due to his sympathies for the Taliban. Some members of Pakistan’s nuclear establishment and the ISI have maintained clandestine links with the Al Qaeda. This is an untold story of the ISI-Pakistan Military-al Qaeda nexus and the feasible probability of nuclear arsenal slipping into the hands of the Jihadis.

Taliban is a child of Pakistan and al Qaeda has been parented by the USA, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The Taliban cannot exist without this Pakistani lifeline. Taliban has hostile neighbours on all sides, except Pakistan. The Shia Iranian to their west hate the Sunni Taliban, the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazaks and Turkmens to the North of the Taliban have an anathema for the spread of Talibanist ideology into their ex-communist society; the Chinese have a silent but decisive hatred of Islamic fanaticism and they execute all Muslim terrorists without fanfare in Xinjiang. The Indians are threatened by the Taliban and al Qaeda. Far in the subcontinental east, Bangladesh has provided nestling holes to both Taliban and al Qaeda.

Many in Pakistan acknowledge that Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, chief of the LeT, ISI and Army commanders and their efforts are on to keep up pressure inside Pakistan by causing sporadic fidayeen attacks. In rural Punjab, NWFP, and the FATA areas jihad has become a way of life. This jihad is influenced by the ideology of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This reality is known to the CIA and other western countries. They are also aware that the ISI, Army elements of Pakistan are actively involved in gradually spreading the jihad virus to India and invigorate the loyal elements in Bangladesh. Their aim is to establish a chain of Islamic International Jihad all over the South Asia, which does not recognize the Durand Line and the lines drawn during partition.

This dissertation cannot be completed without an advance requiem for Pakistan and proximate evaluation of the prognosis for India and Bangladesh. Briefly speaking, over 500 Hubs and 1500 Cells of the Indian Jihadist groups represented by the SIMI, Indian branch of the HuJI, Ahl-e-Hadith, Lashkar-e-Toiba and over thirty other militant groups having close connectivity have been created in different parts of India (excluding Kashmir). For details of these organizations readers are requested to read the articles in my web site. I briefly project them in the map below.

Existence of these Hubs and Cells are increasing by the day. Even after Deoband and other saner elements have given call for opposition to “terrorism”, the senior nationalist Muslims feel that once Islamic Emirate is established in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan, Balochistan and Balwaristan movements would gather strength and threaten Pakistan’s very existence.

In that event, Indian Muslims would become easier targets of the Taliban, al Qaeda and assorted Pakistani Tanzeems. That would be another tragic period of “probable confrontation between Islamic forces and the traditional Indian forces represented by the majority Hindus.”

As far as Bangladesh is concerned the HuJI, JMB, Allahar Dal, Ahl-e-Hadith, Bangla Bhai, Hizbut Tehrir, (nearly 30 of them) are inspired by Taliban and al Qaeda. Over 7000 former Afghan veterans are still active and they are running over 600 mosques and 70,000 madrasas. The present military backed interim regime has taken punitive actions against the JMB, Ahl-e-Hadith and some Allahar Dal members. However, no significant action has been taken against the Jamiat-e-Islami, Islamic Chhatra Shibir and Harkat ul Jihad al Islami. They are active inside Bangladesh and are operating inside India.

Bangladesh Can be examined in four operational areas. The areas west and north-west of Dhaka comprising Jessore, Dinajpur, Pabna, Satkhira and Bagura etc areas are dominated by the Ahl-e-Hadith, Chhatra Shibir, Bangla Bhai and HuJI. The DGFI had established two camps in Kushthia and areas of Pachgarian for transit facilities of the Pakistani jihadis in collaboration of the HuJI.

The DGFI is still actively supporting some of these jihadi forces for spreading the message of jihad in India and causing occasional explosions.

CUT-SECTION OF DHAKA CENTRAL HUB

The garlanding effect between the Pakistani, Indian and Bangladeshi jihadist groups are growing by the day and the message of Deeni unity of the South Asian Ummah is getting firmly rooted. This trend is visible whenever some incidents take place but the underground flow remains unchecked as the volatile political situation and overall sidetracking of the issues of Internal Security are either treated as mere police problems or shuffled below the carpet in the name of “secularism.”

The Jihadi struggle in Afghanistan, Pakistan and its echo in Bangladesh is gradually seeping through the psyche of sections of Indian Muslims. These studies are not attended by the agencies concerned.
The main Dhaka and nearby hubs of the DGFI, ISI (located in a separate building in Gulshan area) have been well identified. For details of ISI and DGFI collaborative operations in India the interested readers may refer to my piece in the book North East on Flames, published by Penguin India. The details are too many and cannot be narrated in this dissertation. Tungibari, near Dkaka is the hub of Tablighi Jammat, which has emerged as the mother of several jihadi outfits.

CUT-SECTION MYMENSINGH AND SYLHET HUBS

The third segment covers Rangpur, greater Mymensingh, Sylhet and adjacent parts of Dhaka division. These areas are strongholds of JMB, HuJI, Hijbut Tehrir, Allahar Dal, Ahl-e-Hadith Bangladesh, and Markazi Taliban-e-Bangladesh (Bangladesher Taliban). Most of the outfits have connectivity with the al Qaeda, Taliban and ISI/DGFI promoted tanzeems.

The lower Bangladesh comprising Comilla, Barisal, Chattagram and the CHT are strongholds of Allahar Dal, JMB, HuJI and Tehrik-e-Taliban, Bangladesh.

However, under the present military backed interim government these out fits are generally desisting from violent actions inside Bangladesh. Nonetheless, independent observers have noticed spontaneous sprouting of mosques, madrasas and increased movements of the jihadists to Pakistan and, southern Thailand and countries of the Middle East. From Barisal to Satkhira and on to India has become a highway to India for the Bangla jihadists.

For reasons of brevity the aspects of Indian insurgent groups active inside Bangla have not been incorporated here.

In short, the future of jihad movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan is intricately connected with the attitude of Muslims in Bangladesh and the majority of the Indian tracts. The ideology of Taliban and al Qaeda brand jihad cannot remain confined within the national boundaries of these nations. These ideas have already crossed the borders and infected minds. As I have indicated, innumerable Modules and Cells have been established inside Indian states. Recent incidents in Jaipur, Bangalore and Surat and Ahmedabad should not be taken as Muslim ire against Hindus. These are parts of “war against India.” This is the preliminary war preparations for regaining the TAJ-e-HINDOOSTAN that once belonged to the Muslim rulers. Concerted uprising from defined territorial bases by the Indian jihadis cannot be expected at this stage. But such sporadic actions are likely to be a regular feature.

The geopolitical and geostrategic considerations of Indian’s Internal and External concerns are required to be addressed rising above the slogans of ‘secularism and “minorityism.” The intelligence and security edifices are neglected by the governments and in several cases the governments themselves attribute communal colour to jihadi attacks. With such lopsided attitude the political will wielders in the country are only strengthening the hands of the jihadists.

The Indian Armed Forces have deep commitment to both Internal and external security concerns. They cannot remain unconcerned. They have compulsive reasons to monitor these developments from the point of view of defense of the country. Today’s low key jihad is likely to create vast air pockets in the country, in which even the Armed Forces might be plagued with vicious turmoil. The total India Inc. including the Armed Forces are required to maintain sleepless vigil. Above all People’s vigil and awareness is the greatest security wall for any country. It is hoped that they would also wake up and besides “resilence” take active interest in saving the country from Jiahdist thrusts.

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  Upananda Brahmachari

  Saturday, February 4th at 18:32

  Islam has its definite plan to ruin all the reminiscence of Hindu Heritage and History. From Hindukush to Hyderabad, Bamiyan to Kashmir Islam tells a destruction all along.
  http://tribune.com.pk/story/328768/ramkot-fort-centuries-old-kashmiri-heritage-site-on-the-verge-of-destruction/

  

  Ramkot Fort: Centuries-old Kashmiri heritage site on the verge of destruction

  tribune.com.pk

  Slackn­ess from local author­ities has led to the deteri­oratio­n of the 500-year-old fort.

  Comment

  

  Rajiv Lochan Das

  Saturday, February 4th at 4:07

  

  Lord Varahadeva protected Mother EARTH from the Demon

  
   vasati dasana-sikhare dharani tava lagna
  sasini kalanka-kaleva nimagna
  keshava dhrta-sukara-rupa jaya jagadisa hare
   
  "O Keshava! O Lord of the universe! O Lord Hari, who have assumed the form of a gigantic boar! All glories to You! ...

  

  Rajeev Khurana HARE KRISHNA

  Saturday, February 4th at 7:30

  

  Kakali Som om namo bhagobate basudebay

  Saturday, February 4th at 15:06

  10 Comment

  

  Upananda Brahmachari

  Friday, February 3rd at 21:35

  

  The Final fall of Islam.

  
  The Final fall of Islam.
   
  ~ Upananda Brahmachari.
   
  One may write many things about it. One can research and prepare a doctoral thesis. But I have not the time so far. ...

  

  Upananda Brahmachari THE EQUATION OF 786, EVERYBODY SHOULD KNOW. What is 786 in Islam? One of my friend pointed out that the Muslim clerics teach the mystery very confidentially. 786=? 7th Century: Birth. 7+8=15th Century: Peak. 7+8+6=21st Century: Fall. 786 depicts the birth, rise and fall of Islam in this encapsulated chronicle of bloodiest phases of human history. Estagfirullah.أستغفر الله. It should not be public. Allah may be annoyed much. In shaa'Allah. إن شاء الله. PBUE. Peace be upon everybody including Allah and Mohammad(صلى الله عليه وسلم).

  Saturday, February 4th at 8:37

  

  Partha Kansabanik Great explanation- Great article.

  Saturday, February 4th at 17:19

  4 Comment

  

  Katyayan Seraph

  Friday, February 3rd at 9:54

  

  Join my cause: stop starting leather industrial complex in and aroung Thiruvannamalai, holy place for Hindus.

  from Katyayan Seraph

  By joining this cause, you can help accomplish its mission: Thiruvannamalai is sacred for all Hindus , A praposal for starting leather industrial comples is announced by Leather experts. recently.

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  Prasenjit Chakraborty

  Friday, February 3rd at 2:55

  Excerpts from the order of Justice BP Katakey, Hon’ble Judge, Gauhati High Court, given on February 1, 2012, in regard to the Writ Petition filed by North East Multimedia Pvt. Ltd. and our demand for justice, “Mr. Bhowmik, learned counsel appearing for the petitioner submits that the management of North East Multimedia Pvt. Ltd. is agreeable to pay whatever amount to which the concerned workmen are entitled to if the issues referred to the Industrial Tribunal are answered in favor of the workmen and against the management.”
  “Since the management has expressed its desire to settle the matter by making payment to the concerned workmen, as indicated above, Sri Prasenjit Chakraborty, the Respondent No.4, who has appeared in person, shall apprise this Court on the next date fixed about the following :
  1) How many workmen are concerned in the reference proceeding ;
  2) Whether any workman has given up their claim challenging the retrenchment, if so, howmany workmen still have the claim;
  3) To which amount or benefit the workmen would be entitled to in the even the issues as referred to the Industrial Tribunal are decided in their favor.
  

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